Averaging 4.21 birdies per round is the exact formula for winning contests in DFS, so pounce on the value that Fleetwood holds ahead of Thursdays opening round. Your position? I count top-3's, top-5's, top-10's, and top-20's at each event. His "poor" play equates to this: 2nd - strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions In sanctioned tournament play, such scores can occur, albeit rarely. The forecast for Thursday, Friday is wind. Here we go! I'm banking on quality iron play, as well as course, and course style, history that will propel him to have success this week. It features small greens and will play even smaller than the measurements indicate with fall-off areas and false fronts protecting the pin locations. Weve seen over the past few weeks how important putting well on Bentgrass greens have been. I have to unlock them manually. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), SEAN OHAIR: I feel comfortable here. Gary Woodland (2.015 sg:total) Wind Anti-Specialists are the golfers whose performance in windy rounds is the lowest when comparing to their baseline. Hes also fifth in Par 4 Efficiency with the length necessary to conquer these long holes and 17th in Par 5 Efficiency. Tiger Woods (1.696 sg:wind vs. 2.376 sg:total) And then conditions like this, like most people say if you come out you shoot a decent score youre going to finish well on the day because some guys are going to struggle; some guys dont like this kind of weather. Patrick Cantlay 10. It goes a notch further and compares the player's performance to a set benchmark. This means that players could be tentative and leave putts short due to fear of overpowering their stroke and sending it further away from the hole. 13th - strokes gained on par-3's over last 36 rounds played (Renaissance Club has five par-3's) You can get started withThe Stats That Matter Mostor head to a more advanced strategy likeHow To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup to learn more. (Wind vs. Expected Strokes Gained) A few crooked digits around the Stadium Course could result . I like playing in the wind, I like it more than the normal guys out there. Q. SHANE LOWRY: Yeah, like people say, oh, you must love this weather when youre over here, but I dont like it at all, but I know how to do it. Trahan (0.598 sg:wind vs. 0.229 sg:total) You have to hit the ball straight off the tee to have a chance this week. Previous finishes of T38 and T10 should make you comfortable that Zalatoris will be more of an asset than a liability in DraftKings lineups this weekend. Oklahoma golf is also known to get extremely windy, and its a safe assumption that wind will play a major factor this week. How much of an advantage or how much confidence does it give you against the field when youre JAMIE LOVEMARK: I guess in theory I shouldnt be but I am. -2017 Pebble Beach, BUBBA WATSON: It was funny, I played with Rickie yesterday and hes like, Man, I hope the wind comes up, I love playing in the wind, and Im like, No, I want it to stay down. Southern Hills is a golf course where players will absolutely need to be able to get up and down from difficult spots. When I go to school, playing in this kind of wind fairly regularly, not all the time. That was my deal. Thanks for the heads up on comments lol. CAMERON CHAMP: Doesnt bother me too much. I perform better on windy golf courses, I tend to play well on courses with softer greens, which sometimes when you have the high wind, you cant get them too firm. CURTIS LUCK: Yeah, of course. This can be in a multitude of ways (off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green, putting, total etc.) Can we agree that this has been a "poor" season for Morikawa, and a regression with iron play? Thats exactly what we need here at TPC Sawgrass. He's well worth a flier this week at low ownership on a course he knows very well. Hey sorry to be a pest Josh, but could you also refresh your HOT WEATHER page as well? But no, I want it to blow. https://futureoffantasy.com/performance-in-cold-weather, This is fantastic and the fact you keep updating it is a rare site on the internet. Pingback: 2017 Open Championship DFS Golf Outlook - Fantasy Six Pack. Homa is a player with very few weaknesses in his game right now, ranking third in total strokes gained, 18th in total driving, and eighth in scrambling. Now, had Sahith Theegala not made a run on Friday to get through the cut on the number, then following that up with a good weekend to finish T16, this could be a completely different story. There will be a price to pay for missing greens with tightly mown run-off areas. As you all know, I like to look at current form as my biggest factor in handicapping golf, so here are the top 10 in total strokes gained in 2023 for this field. SETH REEVES: Yeah. Sentry Tournament of Champions 'Horses for the course' Odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing. 0.275+. McIIroy 2. For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup. can attack in the wind despite their high ball flight. There is a clear difference in thestrokes gained in windy versus non-windy conditions. Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. Robert Garrigus (-0.03 sg:wind vs. 0.524 sg:total) looks like temps will remain under 70 degrees all four days. Stay the course and the results will manifest later in the event, keeping your lineups from dropping out of the green and ultimately cashing the contest. The best strokes gained averages . Perfect. Distance is a big part of wind performance in the long term. But its not easy out here for anybody. A powerful driver and red-hot putter will keep Burns churning out production in DFS lineups, although it may be a bit of a slow start during the opening round on Thursday. That bodes well for keeping him away from having to chip. He's coming off a strong week at Riviera (T9) and a good showing last year at Bay Hill (T5). My game suits these conditions better. The Arnold Palmer Invitational gets underway Thursday from Bay Hill Club & Lodge as were set to provide two PGA Tour predictions for the event. Sergio Garcia (2.708 sg:total) Alex Cejka (1.107 sg:wind vs. 0.689 sg:total) Also he hits the ball so high it is more difficult to get control of it. Hi Josh Frankly, I just believe this is one of the cheaper prices, and lowest ownerships we'll see Hovland at for a long time, and it's well worth the risk to me. There is no strokes gained data available for the event, but greens in regulation is a key stat for success while controlling ball flight in the wind. The raw emotion of coming up short on the PGA Tour. Obviously Ive had a lot of practice growing up in Scotland. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and it will undoubtedly be a factor over the weekend. Ranked first in the field for strokes-gained putting and three-putt avoidance, Day will dominate on the . There are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course, but wind is the primary defense. The Bermuda putting surfaces have played "lightning" fast in every round since 2017. JORDAN SPIETH: Yeah, I have, and will continue to schedule tournaments away from a dome, because its just unusual for me. Rickie Fowler (2.356 sg:total) Bud Cauley (0.964 sg:wind vs. 1.37 sg:total) Within the 50-round model, Zalatoris sits 10th on approach, 10th in opportunities gained and 16th in bogey avoidance. A nagging back injury has kept us from seeing more of Will Zalatoris but that doesnt mean he wont be prepared for a run at an outright win. Hes reached 100 points on FanDuel in three of his past four events, so dont sleep on Mitchells upside entering Bay Hill, where hes previously finished T61, T43, T5, and T6. When golfers talk about strokes gained in windy conditions, they are usually referring to how well they are able to adjust their swings to account for the wind. Strokes gained is a stat that is generally considered to be one of the most important statistics in golf. I enjoying playing the knock down shots the judgement thats needed to play in the wind. Nine under to start the day, Stallings was five strokes behind Scheffler when his afternoon began to improve. One of those things is the ability to play well in the wind. Over the past 24 rounds on difficult courses, Zalatoris ranks fifth in the field in SG: TOT. Tommy Fleetwood: $9,600 Don't count out the Spaniard (+2800) this weekend as we know he plays well in the wind especially at "Carnasty". Tony Finau 8. Managing your salary and maximizing players who have a nose for eagles and birdies sounds easier than it is, but Im back from my paternity leave to help us cash out a few contests on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. The temperature not quite, its normally a lot hotter than this at home. Do you feel like youre a good wind player? Only had two bogeys for the entire week. I won the first week I put it in, and Im just able to flight the ball so much better than I used to be able to, and the wind doesnt seem to take it as much. The tee shot on a par 3 is also considered an approach shot. Ive had no success at the British Open. Cantlay 9. The gap seems to widen as handicaps get higher. Strokes Gained can help golfers achieve this by providing them with the information they need to make the correct shot selection. Hes 61st in the field putting on fast Bermuda greens. Obviously with a good ball striking day, the windier it gets, the better. I have two final notes before we get into the picks. Just this golf course just sort of challenges me and keeps me on my toes. Many players will be forced to hit long irons into greens that will be about as receptive as concrete. By knowing the wind speed and your club selection, you can estimate how much the wind will affect your ball. -2017 Nine Bridges, Q: How does your game fit the wind being from Texas? Top 10 in strokes gained T2G on Pete Dye courses: 1. Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. I'd say I like it when it's challenging. Another is quantifying performance under pressure, a topic . Thats the awesome thing about living over there in Houston. Add in that Zalatoris has gained strokes putting in six consecutive events and plays very well in windy conditions a likely scenario this week in Florida and he should be able to secure a second straight top-20 finish. Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking in windy to very windy conditions: 1. Mitchell has positive strokes gained across the board in three of his last four PGA Tour starts and now plays on his preferred soil and grass. Chris Kirk 7. Its a fun layout. I enjoy the challenge, I think, more than actually the wind. Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:total), Kelly Kraft (1.279 sg:wind vs. 0.464 sg:total) Won the 2022 Qatar Masters in very windy conditions for his first DP World Tour title at 25-years-old. McIIroy 5. In the 2019-20 season, he was the strokes gained/putting champion of the PGA Tour, and almost became just the second person (after Jason Day) to average an entire stroke gained over the field per . Strokes Gained Performance in the Wind The Fantasy Golfanac considers windy rounds to be any round where the average wind is at least 14 mph for the day. Used the off weeks to just work on that and felt like I was in a good place; it paid off. But I grew up in the wind, where I went to college it was also windy so that was an advantage for me. which takes on added emphasis in the expected windy conditions. I enjoy playing in windy conditions, so I know it can get fairly windy down here. And living in Texas you get used to playing in the wind, so I feel comfortable and hopefully I can play like this for the next few days. Can you please update this report? highlighted by 4.2 strokes gained off the tee and 6 . Weather conditions were very tough that week and the tournament didn't feature any PGA Tour players thanks to travel restrictions amid the COVID . Harris English (1.558 sg:wind vs. 1.012 sg:total) Not a good week. Arnold Palmer . When, you know, the conditions a lot like yesterday, do you relish the chance to challenge yourself and how good was the 65? Do you play well in the bad conditions? . Scottie Scheffler 3. playing in these kind of conditions? -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero). Brooks Koepka (2.031 sg:total) The course is long for a par 70, and water will be in play for fifteen of the eighteen holes. Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda . Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models. Heres the custom model for this week that will later be incorporated into the mixed condition model: Now lets look at the mixed condition model which produces final results: For his standards, McIlroy has disappointed at the first two elevated events, finishing 29th at the Genesis Invitational and 32nd at the WM Phoenix Open. He made his first birdie on the par-4 12th, and added others at the 14th and 18th. 1. I like the wind. It was the most strokes gained in a final round since Johnny Miller in 1973 . Once the wind begins to hit 30 mph, only the best golfers will be able to navigate the course and achieve a decent score. Scheffler managed to win in 2022 with only two rounds under par, logging a five-under-par as his winning score, beating Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, and Tyrell Hatton by one stroke. If youre playing well and striking the ball well you dont mind. I enjoy playing in it. Pingback: AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview, Hi Josh First, it allows for better control over the balls movement and acceleration, which is key to making a good putt. There are two main types of drivers: those that are 460cc and have a shallow profile, and those that are less than 460cc and have a deeper profile. PDRAIG HARRINGTON: Its a very difficult golf course but I think I like the conditions that we play in. Nick Taylor (1.296 sg:wind vs. 0.856 sg:total) Have a wonderful evening! Cheers. Gambling problem? Positive or negative score means how much a player has improved or worsened their game in a particular area. . Davis Love III (-0.459 sg:wind vs. 0.012 sg:total) Will Zalatoris: $9,400 He will win before this season ends. An event taking place on a difficult course? your ability to handle the wind here and that type of thing? Looking at the forecast last night, we knew it was going to be a stiff wind. 1): Buy Low on Ja Morant, NBA DFS (Wednesday, Mar. Sergio shows up high on the list and he backs it up with quotes including this one from the '14 Houston Open, "I do like playing in the wind. Download Golf GPS - Hello Birdie and enjoy it on your iPhone, iPad and iPod touch. According to strokes gained data, PGA pros take an average of 417 shots to complete a 460-yard par four. Casey 3. Thats just the way it is. PATRICK REED: I am from Texas. There are many factors that affect how far a golfer can hit their 9 iron. 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Zalatoris ranks first in scrambling from the fringe, first in approach putt performance, and is 27th in strokes gained putting, which is a massive improvement from previous seasons. BEAU HOSSLER: Absolutely. I dont know what anyone else thinks, but it doesnt really matter as long as I think Im a good wind player. Kevin Na (1.239 sg:wind vs. 1.642 sg:total) and in windy conditions, I think this skill could be a difference-maker for the week. I've been running this entire season with a "Morikawa has to turn it around at some point" mentality. When I went to A&M we played in very tough conditions a lot, so I love the wind. Its sneaky hard to putt when its windy. If you are a 20 handicap, you get 20 strokes for the round. Is that mere coincidence or do you think theres something about that in terms of like It appears now that they only let me go and look at the last few previews you wrote. . I actually just went to some new shafts this week, I put them in actually yesterday. Which golfers play best in windy conditions? So I played well in the wind before and I think growing up in it certainly helps. NFL Free Agency Rumors & News: Derek Carr, Leonard Fournette (2023 Fantasy Football), Early Draft Sleepers to Target (2023 Fantasy Football), Trending Up & Trending Down (2023 Fantasy Football), 2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions (Fantasy Football). T17, T10, and T24 finishes in his previous three appearances suggest that we may see Homa atop the leaderboard at some point this weekend, so dont miss out and add him into as many DFS lineups as possible ahead of Thursdays opening round. It blows 40 and rains every day it seems like. Q. -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, ABRAHAM ANCER: This golf course is very tricky, the greens are very tough, we all struggled especially yesterday and the first day. Sure thing. Golfers that are great in the wind are generally elite ball-strikers or elite scrambling. 1 Overall Pick? Across seven appearances at this track, McIlroy has never finished worse than 27th and owns five top-10 finishes, including a victory back in 2018. Im 9. Scott 7. One last look at that hole, I was really focusing more on my target and I hit the shot solidly. Hey David, any article past a certain date got locked after the site switchover. This is a tough golf course and you throw that kind of wind in there. However, it does more than simply analyze a player's skill level. Peter Malnati (0.261 sg:wind vs. 0.603 sg:total) The wind is going to howl: . Will Zalatoris is known for his great iron play. So, I dont trust it but I like it. Also, based on the graph, the max strokes gained is just over 1, but max strokes lost is -1.5. However, one of the nuggets I came across online this week is The Renaissance Club has averaged a 73% GIR clip over the last three years at this event. Stats are time-weighted and adjusted to the strength of competition. This is +0.5 in the Strokes Gained world, and means you have gained 0.5 strokes on the field on that shot. call 1-800-327-5050 or visit https://helplinema.org to speak with a trained specialist free and confidentially 24/7. In besting Matthew Wolff by six strokes and carding a final round 67 at Winged Foot last Sunday, the "Incredible Bulk" logged the fourth most strokes gained in a U.S Open final round at 7.9. Good luck! Over the three tournaments he's gained an average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start. He finished T13 at the Players, the MC'd at the Masters. -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, KEVIN TWAY: Yeah, I played good. This will help you shave strokes off your game and improve your skills quickly. A great way to improve your putting is to spend at least 50% of your practice time on the green. A lot of steep runoffs leading into pot bunkers, but greens that will reward good, smart golf shots. The third elevated event of the PGA Tour season, this latest tournament brings together another elite field with players chasing another $3.6 million winners check. -2017 Valero, Q. DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000. . Well, with the wind, like I said, the course had to be very challenging. Leaderboard Watch News FedExCup Schedule Players Stats Golfbet More PGA TOUR PGA TOUR Champions Korn Ferry Tour PGA TOUR Canada PGA TOUR Latinoamrica LPGA TOUR DP World Tour PGA TOUR University. The 32-year-old Englishman has logged previous finishes of T20, T10, MC, and T3 at Bay Hill, so hes about as solid as they come, especially at this reduced salary on FanDuel. I just stopped looking at . He tends to produce his worst outings in the third round, but hes clutch at the beginning and end of events, which is where Homa can return a massive profit in FanDuel lineups. Can you please also refresh the performance in COLD WEATHER please? The Cutline goes over its top plays for the 2021-2022 Bermuda Championship, and gives extra bonus information on the slate that you can find at the 19th hole. 215+0+.61=1.1 Total Strokes Gained on that hole. But, yeah, I was pretty comfortable going out there today, knowing it was going to be tricky. I enjoy playing in it, which is helpful. That can be found here: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/culps-corner/rbc-heritage-preview, Your email address will not be published. RUSSELL KNOX: Oh, I want it nasty. A player who gets down in one putt is 0.5 strokes better than the average of 1.5. But I think its just a great layout for the predominant wind you get here off the ocean, you get a lot of crosswinds and I tend to play well in the wind so I think thats kind of why it fits my game. He is also a great putter. CHARLEY HOFFMAN: Yeah, Ive had success in the wind, which is nice. Matt. Small, firm, and fast greens combined with high winds typically results in a great deal of frustration for players. In 2020, Bay Hill played as the hardest course that pros saw all year, once again including the majors. With that being said, players must also be aware of the direction of the wind and how it will affect their shot. Expected high winds and firm conditions this week will also open things up a bit to accurate . So, if you are unsure of the exact wind speed, it is better to add 1% for every 1 mph. Jordan Spieth (2.153 sg:total) -2018 Nine Bridges, Q. If you look back at my first year on Tour, its really difficult to play with the wind, in links golf and cold. Yesterday was cold and rainy and today was cold and windy. That doesnt mean just hitting the same shot. While 20 mph may seem like a lot, it is possible to make a success of your game on the golf course with skill and know-how. Keith Mitchell: $9,700 SG: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) over past 24 rounds: Beau Hossler (+24.9) (+20000) As the self-appointed "OG" Spieth fan (after getting smoked by Jordan at the 2008 U.S. Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100! Links course player it would seem. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (0.858 sg:wind vs. 1.236 sg:total) Bogey avoidance: Keeping the big numbers off the scorecard this week is going to be vital. Conditions: 1 keeps me on my toes the player & # x27 ; d say like! Goes a notch further and compares the player & # x27 ; s challenging gained windy... To make the correct shot selection ball flight week, I played well in the strokes gained can help achieve! Cold and windy in Par 4 Efficiency with the information they need be! In this kind of wind fairly regularly, not all the time the! I know it can get fairly windy down here of competition and 17th in 5! 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Around at some point '' mentality well and striking the ball well you mind...: //futureoffantasy.com/performance-in-cold-weather, this is a golf course and you throw that kind of wind performance in cold please... To widen as handicaps get higher hotter than this at home type of thing good wind player four.! All the time around at some point '' mentality off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green, putting total..., where I went to college it was the most important statistics in golf results... Turn it around at some point '' mentality game in a good wind player putting. In 2020, Bay Hill played as the hardest course that pros saw all year, once again the...